Deutsche Bank has revised its Federal Reserve outlook to include a January interest rate hike, raising the prospect of three consecutive quarter-point increases through March 2027 after October’s US inflation report came in hotter than expected. The bank's forecast now places the federal funds target range at 4.50%–4.75% by the end of that sequence, up from the current 3.75%–4.00%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast from economists polled by Reuters, while core inflation held at 0.3% for a third straight month. Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase; food prices advanced 0.5% and energy gained 0.7%. Annual readings were unavailable because of the prior government shutdown.
According to Reuters, Deutsche Bank's research note added January to its earlier expectation for hikes in December and March. The bank did not rule out a larger half-point move following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, but it continued to favor a smaller step. The Fed’s final 2026 meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8–9, with updated economic projections due alongside the decision.
Cryptocurrency markets have been pressured by the macro backdrop and weak fund flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net withdrawals during Nov. 2–6, while Ether funds lost $365.2 million, according to Farside figures. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for roughly $1.21 billion of the Bitcoin outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC took in $93.1 million. Combined Bitcoin and Ether ETF withdrawals reached $1.65 billion during November’s first trading week.
Bitcoin fell below $74,000 after the inflation data, trading around $73,784, down about 1% over 24 hours with a weekly loss of 4.5%. Bitget Wallet analysts said the selloff had removed speculative excess but lacked fresh buying for a durable recovery. They pointed to $73,000–$74,000 as support, while a reclaim of $80,000 would indicate stronger demand and a decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000. CoinShares managing director Marc des Ligneris noted that investors were still paying up to hedge in options positioning. AMINA Bank’s Andreja Cobeljic described renewed Ether ETF buying as a demand signal, while Global Settlement Network CEO Ryan Kirkley cautioned against treating one positive session as proof that selling had ended.
