Polymarket said on November 10 that its annualized revenue run rate had surpassed $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June 2026. The company's U.S. exchange processed approximately $14.77 billion in notional trading volume in October, a roughly 266% increase from $4.04 billion in June and about 70% higher than September. The numbers use full potential payout rather than actual cash paid, but the growth direction remains clear.
Growth has been concentrated in sports and combination contracts. Combination products accounted for $8.6 billion, or 58.2%, of October U.S. volume, while sports contracts added $4.57 billion, or 31%. Soccer-related contracts generated about $1.81 billion in notional volume in June during the FIFA World Cup, compared with $85.4 million in May, and NFL trading helped accelerate activity later in the year. Political markets represented only about 2.2% of U.S. volume in early November, with election contracts generating about $108.2 million in the first ten days of November versus $16.6 million for all of September.
The rapid expansion is tied directly to the products facing the strongest legal challenges. New York sued Polymarket US in September, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts, including sports markets, without a state gaming license. The state is seeking an injunction, forfeiture of alleged unlawful gains, restitution and civil penalties. Polymarket argues that its U.S. exchange operates under federal commodities law and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction. The CFTC has largely supported that position and said in October it initiated proceedings against 10 states seeking to prevent them from restricting CFTC-registered prediction markets through state gambling laws. The dispute could reach the Supreme Court after New Jersey asked for review of an appellate ruling involving Kalshi.
Federal oversight still creates risk. The CFTC is examining whether Polymarket complied with its 2022 settlement on U.S. access to its international platform, including historical geographic controls, advertising and customer onboarding. No violation has been established. At the same time, Polymarket is strengthening its regulated U.S. infrastructure; an affiliate received National Futures Association approval to become a futures commission merchant, subject to final CFTC registration.
The company is pursuing a roughly $1 billion financing round at a reported $21 billion post-money valuation, with 1789 Capital expected to contribute about $300 million. That valuation is up from approximately $15 billion after an earlier round. Operational milestones include a restricted U.S. registration program in December 2025, the removal of its iOS app waitlist in May 2026, and the introduction of fee-based trading in early 2026. The platform also suspended trading on October 29, 2026, after a security incident at a third-party IT provider, later resuming operations and promising refunds. Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber was removed following an internal audit into promotional campaigns, according to the New York Post.
