Nvidia Rebound Lifts Chip Stocks as Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 90%

48 minute ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Semiconductor rebound is fragile as Nvidia's 14% November drop reflects governance and export-control risks.
  • Rising December Fed hike odds threaten crypto liquidity, making BTC sensitive to risk-off swings.
  • Traders should watch Nvidia's congressional hearing and leveraged wallet flows for early crypto volatility spillovers.

The U.S. stock market staged a broad rebound on Nov. 11, 2026, with the Nasdaq jumping 2.2%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.5%, and the Dow adding 169 points. Nvidia reversed some of its steep November losses, rising about 2.7% to 3.5% to trade near $174.64 after two consecutive down sessions. The recovery followed CoreWeave's better-than-expected quarterly results and raised 2026 revenue forecast, which lifted semiconductor shares broadly; AMD and Broadcom each gained more than 5%, while Intel also surged.

Despite the rebound, Nvidia remains down roughly 14% for November, with about $700 billion in market value erased. The stock has been pressured by a board investigation into CEO Jensen Huang following reports of an alleged affair with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy, as well as scrutiny over restricted chip exports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly confronted Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick over Nvidia customer Megaspeed, which faces accusations of diverting U.S. chips to China. Huang also withdrew from Anthropic’s executive forum and ElevenLabs’ New York summit on Nov. 9, while Nvidia earlier directed global cloud providers to cap Chinese customers’ access to AI computing services at 49%.

Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral and cut its price target by 60%, with analyst Tristan Gerra citing unresolved questions about possible U.S. government action, an upcoming congressional hearing, ongoing investigations, potential charges, and uncertainty around Huang’s tenure. At the same time, Lookonchain identified wallet 0xc8b5 holding leveraged positions: a $24.2 million five-times long in Nvidia shares and a $12.7 million two-times long in SanDisk.

Broader macro expectations also moved: Fed rate hike odds hit 90% for December, while Goldman Sachs expects another increase in March, keeping interest-rate policy in focus for risk assets including crypto.

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