Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a strong price surge of over 40% in the last month, reclaiming levels above $2,500 after falling near $1,800. However, recent analyses by Glassnode and others suggest that ETH is encountering significant resistance near the $2,800 mark. This price level corresponds to a cluster of investor cost basis, indicating that many holders who previously bought at around $2,800 may take the opportunity to sell at break-even, increasing selling pressure.
Market sentiment is also shifting in the derivatives space, with the Ethereum Taker Buy-Sell Ratio dropping. This metric tracks aggressive buying versus selling in futures markets and its downward trend signals a dominance of sellers. Technical indicators show ETH still trading above major moving averages, maintaining a medium to long-term uptrend, but key signals like a bearish crossover on the MACD and tightening Bollinger Bands hint at waning rally momentum.
Two possible scenarios are now considered: if ETH breaks above $2,800 convincingly—possibly boosted by the upcoming SEC decision on Ethereum staking ETFs by June 1—it could quickly advance toward $3,000 or higher, fueled by potential institutional investment via yield-bearing ETFs. Conversely, if selling pressure prevails near $2,800, a correction could bring ETH down to about $2,200 support before any renewed rally.
Supporting this outlook, a recent pullback saw ETH fall 3.05% to around $2,476 after rejection at $2,700. Both large holders and retail investors have exhibited increased sell activity, with significant net outflows of ETH from whale accounts. Spot market volumes favor sellers, reinforcing the bearish immediate momentum. Defensive support levels at $2,200 are critical to watch, as a breakdown below this could open the door to a deeper correction. However, if selling pressure diminishes, ETH could consolidate and later resume upward momentum targeting $2,700 to $3,000.
