XRP has declined over 60% from its 2025 peak, with bearish sentiment dominating social media. However, technical analysts are pointing to charts that suggest a complex path ahead, involving a potential short-term rally followed by a more significant downturn.
One analyst highlights a pattern using the two-week Gaussian channel, a trend indicator that has mapped every major XRP cycle since 2013. This pattern shows that every time XRP has fallen from a cycle high back into the channel's green zone, a relief rally has followed before a deeper drop. Based on this, a short-term relief rally toward the $1.80–$2.00 range is expected. Historical patterns, however, warn that this rally could precede a further decline toward the $0.90 support level.
Separately, analyst Egrag Crypto emphasizes XRP's long-term technical structure. The asset has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline since its 2017 breakout, with powerful expansion phases followed by corrective moves. Price action is now approaching a critical confluence support area between $0.95 and $0.80. This zone is significant due to the convergence of the 21, 50, and 100 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the long-term trendline support, and a key historical liquidity zone.
Egrag suggests the market is undergoing not just a price correction but also a time-based reset, which may require an extended consolidation period through Q2–Q3 of 2026 before the next major move. The bottoming process could complete in this timeframe. For a new expansion phase to begin, XRP would need to reclaim key levels, starting with a recovery above the 21 EMA and a break of the current descending structure. $2.20 is highlighted as a critical level where momentum could accelerate again in a future bullish cycle.
