Crypto prediction markets have garnered more than $4 million in betting volume focused on the ongoing feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen heightened activity with wagers placed on diverse outcomes ranging from Trump's impeachment in 2025 to Musk potentially unfollowing Trump on X (formerly Twitter), and even more speculative scenarios such as Musk launching a centrist political party or Trump filing lawsuits against Musk.
Polymarket, serving as the official prediction market partner of X, has attracted significant user participation and liquidity, driven largely by Ethereum-based decentralized platforms. Implied odds reflect the market's view on probabilities such as an 11% chance of Trump’s impeachment in 2025 and about a 17% chance Musk forms a new political party by the end of 2025.
The feud is viewed both as political theater and genuine risk, with rapid shifts in odds responding to public statements or rumors. Markets show skepticism toward extreme outcomes like Trump's X account suspension or a presidential apology, but meaningful probabilities placed on longer-term pivots including reconciliation or a strategic lawsuit.
Token prices associated with this dynamic include the Solana-based Official Trump token (TRUMP), which rose about 4.8% over the past week, and Dogecoin (DOGE), Musk’s favored meme coin, which recorded moderate gains amid the heightened attention.
Overall, the Trump-Musk conflict exemplifies how decentralized markets are transforming political and celebrity drama into quantifiable, tradable assets anchored on Ethereum infrastructure, reflecting both retail and institutional engagement and providing a real-time barometer of public sentiment intertwined with crypto usage.