Bloomberg analysts have increased the probability of approval for spot-based XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States from 85% to 95% in 2025, reflecting growing optimism amid heightened engagement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Similar approval odds of 95% have also been attributed to spot ETFs tracking Litecoin (LTC) and Solana (SOL), up from 90% previously.
Additionally, proposals for spot ETFs based on altcoins such as Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Avalanche (AVAX) remain highly favored, with approval odds also near 95%, as the SEC appears to regard all these tokens as commodities.
On the prediction platform Polymarket, speculators have raised the XRP spot ETF approval odds to 90% for 2025, a 19% increase that demonstrates rising investor confidence. The platform’s recent trading volumes exceeding $95,000 suggest strong market interest.
The approval of a U.S. spot XRP ETF could provide retail investors simplified access to XRP through traditional stock exchanges without requiring direct management of cryptocurrency wallets. This is expected to attract institutional capital seeking exposure to XRP while mitigating direct crypto risks.
Despite a 35-day SEC delay announced recently concerning the Franklin Templeton spot XRP ETF proposal, this comment period also applies to a proposed spot Solana ETF by the same firm. Meanwhile, the 3iQ XRP ETF successfully debuted on the Toronto Stock Exchange, marking progress in regulated ETF offerings tied to XRP.