MicroStrategy (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, is on the verge of qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500 index, contingent on Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining its price above a critical threshold of $95,240 by the end of June 2025. This milestone is primarily due to new accounting rules allowing unrealized Bitcoin gains to be included in reported earnings, directly impacting MicroStrategy’s financial results and S&P 500 eligibility.
Financial analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% probability that MicroStrategy will meet the required net income threshold, based on historical Bitcoin price stability over six-day trading windows since 2014. The company currently holds 592,345 BTC at an average cost of $70,666, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $107,213 as of June 25, 2025. The value of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings currently exceeds $63.5 billion, substantially contributing to its earnings.
If MicroStrategy joins the S&P 500, it would enable Bitcoin to enter mainstream equity portfolios by proxy, as roughly $15.6 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the index. This inclusion would require index funds to allocate capital to MSTR stock, creating indirect but substantial exposure to Bitcoin for traditional asset managers otherwise restricted from holding the cryptocurrency directly.
Beyond the immediate financial impact, S&P 500 inclusion would reposition MicroStrategy from being perceived primarily as a Bitcoin proxy to a member of a group of companies with consistent revenue streams, dividend policies, and enhanced governance standards. This shift would likely lead to increased expectations around financial stability and operational discipline, as well as more frequent index reviews and reweighting.
The precedent of Tesla’s S&P 500 entry, which resulted in over $80 billion in inflows and greater market correlation, serves as a comparison point for the potential effects on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin. Ultimately, if MSTR is included, Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance markets would deepen, altering classification and exposure dynamics within broader financial ecosystems.