Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating near the $4,000 resistance level despite strong on-chain indicators pointing to a potential major rally. According to Santiment data, wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH have steadily accumulated since early 2025, signaling institutional positioning ahead of retail hype. This coincides with a 64% surge in ETH/BTC market value ratio since May 8, 2025 – reflecting decisive decoupling from Bitcoin's trajectory.
Social sentiment has flipped dramatically from a 3:5 bearish ratio in April (when ETH hit $1,450) to a 2:1 bullish ratio in late July. While cooler than June's 3.5:1 'frothy' peak, this moderation suggests healthier momentum. Technically, the NUPL indicator nearing 0.5 historically precedes sharp rallies, and current trading volume patterns mirror May's pre-breakout behavior.
ETH trades at $3,666 (9% below $4,000), with critical support at $3,530. A breach above $4,000 could trigger accelerated gains, while failure risks a drop to $3,131. Analysts like Fundstrat's Tom Lee cite ETF inflows, AI infrastructure demand, and institutional adoption as catalysts for a long-term $10,000–$15,000 target.