CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has publicly declared the traditional Bitcoin cycle theory invalid, marking a significant shift in crypto market analysis. In a July 24, 2025 statement, Ju admitted his previous predictions—based on buying during whale accumulation and selling during retail investor surges—no longer apply due to fundamental market changes.
Key to this shift is whale behavior transformation: Instead of distributing Bitcoin to retail investors, old whales now sell to new institutional entities and long-term holders. On-chain data from CryptoQuant analyst Burakkesmeci confirms this trend, showing retail holdings steadily declining since early 2023 while institutions, ETFs, and large wallets accumulate Bitcoin. "This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021. Quiet and smart money is currently on stage," noted Burakkesmeci, highlighting the absence of retail euphoria.
Ju specifically cited unprecedented institutional adoption—exceeding analysts' expectations—as the primary disruptor, creating market conditions incomparable to Bitcoin's history. This structural shift complicates forecasting, as traditional bear market indicators (retail panic) are replaced by uncertainty around institutional behavior. Ju apologized for potential impacts of his outdated March 2023 prediction that the bull cycle had ended, acknowledging the theory's collapse necessitates new analytical frameworks for risk management.