Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) 365-day moving average is flashing warning signs of a potential double-top formation, mirroring the pattern that preceded the 2021 bear market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent, the current cycle shows the first peak already formed, with the second peak projected around September 10, 2025, which could trigger a significant market decline.
The MVRV ratio's double-top "camel pattern" historically indicates cycle tops, with the current setup suggesting a possible market cascade. Despite Bitcoin trading at $118,800 (3.4% below its July 14 all-time high of $123,091), short-term holders continue accumulating BTC. Recent data shows the 1W-1M cohort increased holdings by 3.6% and 1D-1W holders grew by 1.4%, purchasing between $115,252-$117,762.
Exchange reserves dropped to 2.3 million BTC, signaling long-term holding intentions. However, institutional investors show conflicting behavior: they sold $285.2 million in BTC between July 21-23 before buying $375.5 million on July 24-25 – the lowest two-day inflow in recent months, indicating waning confidence. Technical analysis reveals bearish divergences, with liquidation risks around $114,000-$113,600.
Analysts caution that while a short-term rally remains possible through late August, the converging indicators – including lagging MVRV signals and institutional outflow patterns – suggest heightened downside risk by September.