Veteran trader Peter Brandt has updated his Bitcoin price projections, presenting a cautiously optimistic yet highly conditional outlook. Brandt identified bullish technical patterns—including a bull flag and inverse head-and-shoulders formation—that could propel BTC to $125,000 or even $150,000, representing a potential 35% rally from current levels. However, he simultaneously warned of a bearish double-top pattern formation and emphasized that Bitcoin must reclaim the $117,570 level to invalidate this negative signal.
Brandt’s analysis draws parallels to previous Bitcoin cycles in 2017 and 2021, noting that assets often peak due to supply distribution. He assigned only a 30% probability that Bitcoin has reached its market cycle peak, reflecting his balanced but uncertain stance. Market sentiment has been influenced by his comments, coinciding with a 12% price drop from the $124,457 all-time high to $108,762, wiping over $400 billion from the total crypto market capitalization.
On-chain data reveals concerning signals: a Bitcoin OG whale sold another 750 BTC ($83.11 million) amid ongoing distributions, having previously sold 1,750 BTC at an average price of $108,160 for total profits of $550 million. Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows the 30-day moving average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped to its lowest level since May 2018, indicating significant selling pressure. Seasonal factors also suggest potential weakness, with Bitcoin historically averaging -4.68% returns in September since 2020.
Market participants are watching Nvidia's earnings release for potential correlation with Bitcoin's performance, while analyst Michael van de Poppe notes bullish divergence signals for altcoins, suggesting possible capital rotation from BTC to alternative cryptocurrencies.
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