Bitwise Asset Management, a firm managing over $15 billion in assets, has released a long-term outlook projecting Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035 in its base case scenario. This projection translates to an annualized growth rate of 28.3% from Bitcoin's current level of approximately $112,000. If realized, Bitcoin's market capitalization would climb to nearly $28 trillion, more than double the current value of the global gold market.
The firm outlined alternative paths with a bull case of $3 million per coin and a bear case of $88,000. The forecast is driven by three key forces: institutional adoption, global search for inflation hedges, and Bitcoin's fixed issuance schedule. Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutions now account for over 75% of trading volume, with new demand outpacing new supply by a factor of six.
Bitwise emphasizes that U.S. federal debt now exceeds $36 trillion (up 55% in 10 years), with annual interest payments soaring to $952 billion. The report notes that $10,000 held in U.S. dollars in 2015 has lost around 40% of its purchasing power, positioning Bitcoin as a modern counterpart to gold. With fewer than 1.1 million coins left to be mined and post-halving rewards reduced to about 450 BTC per day, scarcity continues to tighten.
Chief investment officer Matt Hougan described inelastic supply as "the single most important force behind Bitcoin's outlook." The firm anticipates institutional investors could allocate 1-5% of portfolios to Bitcoin, representing $1-5 trillion in inflows over the next decade. ETFs already hold $170 billion worth of BTC, signaling this process is underway.
Bitwise acknowledges risks including regulatory shifts and macroeconomic shocks, anticipating recurring 30-60% drawdowns despite decreased volatility. However, the broader trajectory suggests Bitcoin is moving from speculation into the core of global portfolios, potentially competing directly with gold and U.S. Treasuries as a mainstream store of value.