BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and potentially $1 million by 2028. Hayes shared his outlook in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, pointing to U.S. Treasury policies and global monetary trends as key drivers for Bitcoin's future growth.
Hayes expects aggressive monetary expansion policies under the Trump administration, particularly U.S. Treasury bond buybacks, to inject fresh liquidity into the economy. He argues these measures will reduce Treasury market volatility and free up capital, redirecting investor flows into riskier assets like Bitcoin. Hayes believes governments worldwide are just beginning monetary expansion that could fuel crypto markets well into 2026.
The BitMEX co-founder ties his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, describing the erosion of a unipolar world order as pushing policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing. He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe, including a potential French default that could destabilize the euro, which he sees as another factor likely to accelerate global money printing.
Hayes pushed back on concerns that Bitcoin has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August, contrasting its performance with other asset classes. He noted that when measured against currency debasement, Bitcoin outperforms stocks, housing, and gold. Only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed when measured against gold since the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite Hayes' optimistic projections, many analysts remain skeptical. Experts point to potential headwinds including slowing institutional inflows, reduced retail momentum, large-scale miner sell-offs, weak credit growth, inflationary risks, and possible tighter regulatory environments. Some analysts suggest Bitcoin could face a correction toward $100,000 before any new rally takes shape.