Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced significant volatility in September, rallying over 54% in three months before correcting nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. The meme coin is now trading around $0.26-$0.28, with its ability to reclaim $0.29 seen as critical for further upside.
Data from Glassnode reveals a stark divergence between retail and whale activity. Between September 7 and 15, exchange balances swelled by 4.96 billion DOGE (approximately $1.29 billion), indicating heavy retail selling pressure. This was triggered partly by news of a delayed Dogecoin ETF launch on September 11.
Conversely, large holders have been accumulating. Whales holding over 1 billion DOGE added 540 million tokens ($140 million) from September 13-15. Another cohort holding 10-100 million DOGE grew their stash by 350 million tokens ($91 million). In total, whales absorbed about 890 million DOGE ($231 million), countering 18% of the retail selling at the time.
Technical analysis suggests a hidden bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI, with DOGE forming higher lows while the RSI formed lower lows since September 7. This often signals weakening selling momentum. Key support levels are at $0.25 and $0.23. Analyst Ali Martinez emphasizes that a decisive daily close above $0.29 is essential to confirm bullish momentum and target levels of $0.32-$0.35, with potential to reach $0.50. Failure to hold $0.23 would invalidate the current bullish structure.
