XRP experienced significant price swings over the weekend, initially breaking below the psychological $3.00 level to hit lows near $2.95 on Saturday, driven by a heavy-volume flushout that cleared leveraged longs. However, by early Sunday Asia trade, the token rebounded decisively above $3.00, with bargain hunters and whales stepping in aggressively. Traders now view the $3.10–$3.30 range as a key battleground, with breakout projections targeting $4.00–$4.20 if resistance is overcome.
Background factors include seven live XRP ETF filings with October decision windows, which traders frame as binary events for Q4 price action. Additionally, Ripple's Japanese partner SBI deepened its XRP-linked lending program last week, fueling institutional integration narratives in Asia. Broader crypto markets remain volatile after $1.7 billion in derivatives liquidations, but XRP saw inflows exceeding 160 million tokens into wallets in the past week.
Technical analysis reveals a fresh support base at $2.95–$3.00 defended by high-volume accumulation, with short-term resistance at $3.03 and a breakout zone at $3.30. The higher-timeframe inverse head-and-shoulders pattern remains intact, eyeing $4.20–$4.80 if $3.30 clears. Momentum indicators like RSI in the mid-50s suggest a neutral-to-bullish bias, and MACD is trending toward a bullish crossover.
However, bearish risks persist, as XRP mirrors a fractal pattern from September that could trigger a 15% drop toward $2.60 if it loses the $3 support. The four-hour RSI is correcting from overbought levels above 70, and a decisive close below $2.93 may confirm a breakdown. Liquidation heatmaps highlight over $500 million in long liquidations stacked between $2.89 and $2.73, which could accelerate a sell-off if support fails.
Traders are closely watching whether XRP can sustain closes above $3.00, the SEC's October 18 ETF decision window, whale wallet flows, and macro factors like the Fed's dovish pivot and Asian liquidity flows.
