The cryptocurrency market faced a severe downturn, with Bitcoin losing 9%, Ethereum dropping 6%, and XRP plunging 15%, erasing billions in trader positions and igniting debate over the validity of Bitcoin's long-held four-year halving cycle. This theory, which predicted price peaks a year after mining rewards are halved every four years, is now being questioned by experts who argue it no longer aligns with modern market behavior.
According to Matthew Nay of Messari, "Some investors are still anchored to the four-year narrative," but geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions have distorted expectations. He noted that traders are defending short positions because the market feels fundamentally different, driven by institutional money, derivatives, and ETF flows rather than miner activity. Jonathan Morgan of Stocktwits described recent selling as "mechanical," fueled by automated trading and outdated retail habits like buying before halvings and selling if prices don't bounce.
Jasper De Maere of Wintermute emphasized that miners' influence has dwindled, stating, "Their rewards used to set the rhythm of the market. Today, that share is minuscule compared to institutional volume." The sell-off was exacerbated by a $19 billion liquidation event following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats, marking one of the highest daily liquidation volumes in crypto history. Despite this, some analysts, including Nay, suggest Bitcoin could still surprise with a new all-time high before year-end, indicating that cyclical behavior may evolve rather than disappear entirely.
Morgan summarized the shift, noting that ETFs, hedge funds, and global macro forces now dominate price movements, transforming Bitcoin from a miner-supply-driven asset to a highly financialized one intertwined with traditional finance. The consensus is that the old cycle model is fading, replaced by a more complex and unpredictable market dynamic.
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