Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expressed skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2025, stating in a CNBC interview on Wednesday that it would require "a heck of a lot of crazy stuff" to achieve such momentum. With only about ten weeks left in the year, Bitcoin would need to surge approximately 133% from its current price of around $107,649 to hit the $250,000 mark, a scenario Novogratz deems unlikely without major catalysts.
Novogratz outlined a more probable outlook, predicting Bitcoin will hold between $100,000 and $125,000. He emphasized that $100,000 is a key psychological support level, first breached in December 2024 after Donald Trump's reelection, and noted Bitcoin recently tested this level, dropping to $102,000 on October 10 following Trump's 100% tariffs on China. On the upside, he said gains could accelerate if Bitcoin breaks above $125,000, its all-time high from October 5.
Potential triggers for a breakout include if Trump influences the Federal Reserve "prematurely" or if the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill, passes this year. Novogratz also highlighted the Fed's interest rate decisions, with a 96.7% probability of a rate cut at the October 29 meeting according to CME’s Fed Watch Tool, as a bullish factor. Despite other executives like BitMine's Tom Lee and BitMEX's Arthur Hayes maintaining confidence in a $200,000 to $250,000 year-end price, some analysts argue that Bitcoin's peak doesn't necessarily have to occur in Q4.
Novogratz's comments reflect broader market trends, including decreased volatility and recovering investor confidence, which he believes could signal the start of a new bullish cycle and reinforce Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" in the digital economy.
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