U.S.-China Trade Talks Target Tariff Relief Amid Expert Warnings of Temporary Solutions

On October 25, 2025, the United States and China initiated critical trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur, led by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. These talks aim to ease Trump-era tariffs ahead of a pivotal summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping scheduled for October 30. The discussions focus on addressing key economic issues, including agricultural trade and regional security, with trade experts anticipating potential temporary rollbacks of tariffs, particularly on U.S. agricultural exports like soybeans.

This meeting represents the fifth in-person session between the officials since the trade war escalated earlier in the year, building on previous negotiations that included a video call between the two presidents. A U.S. Treasury spokesperson described the current talks as "very constructive," highlighting efforts to avoid a repeat of past tensions where tariffs exceeded 100% on some goods. However, the urgency is driven by an expiring 90-day tariff truce, which lowered duties to approximately 55% on U.S. goods and 30% on Chinese exports and is set to lapse on November 10.

Despite the progress, former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky, who served under Bill Clinton, issued a stark warning at the Bund Summit in Shanghai. She stated, "A US-China deal, whatever it is, will be at best setting a tactical floor for the moment," and emphasized that it would not strategically alter the directions of either nation. Barshefsky predicted a fragmentation of the global trading system into three blocs: the U.S. and its allies, China with the Global South and Russia, and non-aligned economies like India.

Recent escalations have complicated the talks, including the U.S. Commerce Department's addition of numerous Chinese firms to an export blacklist in late September and China's retaliation on October 10 by tightening controls on rare earth mineral exports, aimed at restricting their use in foreign military systems. In response, the Trump administration is considering further restrictions on software-driven U.S. exports to China, such as laptops and smartphones, while also launching a new tariff probe into China's compliance with the 2020 "Phase One" trade deal. At the Bund Summit, debates intensified, with former Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding defending China's actions and urging the U.S. to address domestic inequalities rather than blaming China.