Bitcoin and Ethereum options valued at approximately $17 billion are set to expire on Deribit exchange, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement today. This represents one of the largest monthly options settlements of the year, with Bitcoin options accounting for $14.4 billion and Ethereum options for $2.6 billion in notional value.
The max pain levels—where the most options expire worthless—are $114,000 for Bitcoin and $4,110 for Ethereum. Currently, Bitcoin trades near $113,000 and Ethereum around $4,000, indicating potential price pressure toward these levels. Out-of-the-money options make up 82.5% of open interest, signaling trader expectations of sharp price movements, with call options clustered at $120,000 and $130,000 for BTC and puts dominant at $100,000 and $110,000.
Bitcoin's put-call ratio is 0.76, and Ethereum's is 0.70, reflecting a bullish bias with more call positions. The timing with the Fed meeting and major tech earnings this week could amplify market volatility, as traders adjust portfolios, potentially increasing short-term trading volume and liquidity concerns.
Additionally, Deribit's market share in Bitcoin options has declined from 80% to 44% since IBIT launched competing products in November 2024, highlighting growing competition. Analysts recommend monitoring real-time data and order book changes for insights into post-expiration trends and broader cryptocurrency sentiment.
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