Coinbase stock remains in a technical bear market, having fallen over 20% from its year-to-date high, with investors closely watching its third-quarter earnings report scheduled for October 30, 2025. The company's second-quarter results, released in July, revealed revenue of $1.5 billion, a 26% decline from the first quarter, though slightly above the $1.44 billion from the same period last year. This drop was primarily driven by a slowdown in its transaction business, which generated $764 million, down from $780 million in Q2 2024, partially offset by growth in subscription and services revenue.
Notably, Coinbase's stablecoin operations, through its partnership with Circle for USD Coin (USDC), contributed $332 million in revenue. Net income for Q2 was $1.4 billion, but this was largely due to an unrealized investment in Circle; excluding this and other crypto portfolio gains, net income would have been just $33 million. Analysts anticipate a strong rebound in Q3, with revenue expected to rise 49% to $1.8 billion, and the most optimistic forecasts projecting it could exceed $2 billion. Earnings per share are estimated at $1.1, up from 28 cents year-over-year, driven by factors like the Deribit acquisition and rising crypto prices.
However, Coinbase faces intensifying competition from exchanges like OKX, Binance, Kraken, and Robinhood, with Robinhood's crypto revenue nearly doubling in Q2 and Kraken growing over 14%. Technical analysis indicates a potential bullish breakout, as the stock has formed a rising broadening wedge pattern and remains above key support levels, including the 100-day Exponential Moving Average. The outcome of the earnings report could determine whether Coinbase's stock price recovers to target levels around $381, slightly above its current $350.
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