Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could experience a significant drop in value relative to gold, with the potential for a 60% decline in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. According to his model, the ratio is approaching the critical 25 level, and a break below could push it toward 15, marking Bitcoin's weakest period against gold since 2018.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold equal one Bitcoin, peaked near 60 in late 2021 but has since stagnated. Charts from Bloomberg show the ratio repeatedly testing the 25 threshold in 2025, with each rebound weaker than the last, indicating diminishing momentum for Bitcoin.
This trend coincides with a mild increase in U.S. Treasury yields, as the 10-year note surpassed 4%, coupled with rising equity volatility. Gold has shown resilience, even amid rate cuts, suggesting sustained investor confidence, while Bitcoin's muted response points to fading demand for the cryptocurrency as a hedge or store of value.
McGlone highlights that if Bitcoin fails to hold key support levels, the ratio's collapse could signal a structural shift where gold reclaims its dominance as a safe-haven asset. Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers near $104,000, with liquidity clusters between $103,000 and $104,000 under test. A breach could lead to further support at $101,500 to $100,000, based on technical indicators and on-chain data.
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