Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has asserted that MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is well-positioned to avoid forced sales of its Bitcoin reserves during the next significant market downturn. According to Woo, the company's debt structure, primarily composed of convertible senior notes, provides flexibility in repayment options, allowing it to settle obligations with cash, shares, or a combination, rather than relying on Bitcoin sales.
The firm has approximately $1.01 billion in debt maturing on September 15, 2027. Woo emphasized that for MicroStrategy to avoid partial liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings, its stock price must remain above $183.19 per share, which corresponds to a Bitcoin price of around $91,500, assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1. In a social media post, Woo stated, "MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it," highlighting the unlikelihood of such a scenario under current conditions.
MicroStrategy currently holds 641,205 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $64 billion, according to Saylor Tracker data. Despite Bitcoin's recent pullback—down nearly 10% over the past week to $101,377—and MicroStrategy's stock hitting a seven-month low of $246.99, Woo's analysis suggests resilience. Another analyst, The Bitcoin Therapist, echoed this view, noting that "it would take one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation."
However, Woo cautioned that risks could emerge if Bitcoin fails to appreciate significantly by the anticipated 2028 bull market. "Ironically, there's a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC doesn't climb in value fast enough," he warned, indicating that stagnation, rather than a crash, poses a longer-term threat. In contrast, optimistic forecasts from figures like Cathie Wood and Brian Armstrong, who predict Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030, could further solidify MicroStrategy's position if realized.
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