Crypto analyst Charles Edwards has issued a stark warning that quantum computers could theoretically decrypt the private keys protecting Bitcoin wallets and other cryptocurrencies by March 8, 2028, at 11:23 a.m. This projection, based on the Quantum Doom Clock model, estimates that within two years, four months, and two days, quantum processors will reach the scale needed to break elliptic curve and RSA encryption, which secures nearly all digital assets.
The model, developed by Dr. Richard Carback and Colton Dillion, assumes exponential growth in quantum computing, extrapolating from 53 qubits in 2019 to over 6,000 by late 2027. It suggests that once a quantum processor achieves roughly 1,673 logical qubits, it could run Shor's algorithm to derive private keys from public addresses, rendering existing Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets vulnerable. Edwards cautions that unless networks migrate to quantum-safe algorithms, the $2.5 trillion digital economy could be erased overnight.
However, critics argue that the Quantum Doom Clock, operated by Postquant Labs and Hadamard Gate Inc., packages aggressive assumptions about qubit scaling and error rates as marketing for post-quantum tools. Government bodies like the U.S. NSA and UK NCSC recommend a more gradual migration, with deadlines set for 2035, implying a multi-year arc rather than an imminent cliff. Technical challenges, such as the need for millions of physical qubits and low error rates, are highlighted, with a 2021 analysis estimating 20 million noisy physical qubits required for breaking RSA-2048.
For Bitcoin, vulnerabilities exist in outputs like legacy P2PK and reused SegWit, with proponents of BIP-360 claiming over 6 million BTC are at risk. Mitigation paths include post-quantum signatures, though these could increase transaction sizes and fees. The divergence between marketing-aggressive timelines and institutional roadmaps underscores the uncertainty, with lab progress still needing breakthroughs in logical gate quality and T-gate distillation.
HYPE