JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to around $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months, according to reports from The Block and ETHNews. This bullish forecast is based on the completion of a deleveraging phase in perpetual futures markets and Bitcoin's improved relative volatility compared to gold.
The analysts highlighted that Bitcoin's sharp decline of over 20% on October 11 was triggered by heavy deleveraging in futures and the $128 million Balancer attack. They noted that major liquidations occurred on October 10, followed by smaller ones on November 3, signaling that the speculative excess in crypto derivatives has largely been cleared. This reset is viewed as healthy for market structure, paving the way for a potential uptrend.
JPMorgan emphasized that Bitcoin is currently undervalued on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold. The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin consumes approximately 1.8 times more risk capital than gold. To match gold's private investment value of about $6.2 trillion, Bitcoin's market value would need to increase by 67%, translating to a price target of $170,000. Analysts stated that this implies significant upside potential over the coming year, with the current price appearing way below its fair value.
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