Macro analyst Lyn Alden has asserted that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a major crash, citing the absence of euphoric market conditions that typically precede such downturns. In a recent appearance on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden emphasized that the traditional four-year cycle, often tied to Bitcoin halvings, is losing its influence due to growing institutional demand and broader macroeconomic forces.
Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026, with potential new all-time highs either that year or in 2027. She cautioned investors against assuming every dip guarantees a bull run, stating, "No one is owed a bull market." Her views align with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who also dismissed the four-year cycle theory, suggesting the market could see extended growth over several years.
This analysis comes amid Bitcoin's recent volatility, with prices sliding from an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5 to a low of $80,700 before rebounding to around $85,700. Contrasting opinions exist, such as from Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki, who predicts a 65-70% retracement in the next two years.
Additionally, Coinbase Institutional noted that futures markets may have mispriced rate-cut odds, arguing that tariff effects could reduce inflation and strengthen the case for Federal Reserve action. If the Fed holds rates steady, XWIN Research Japan analysis suggests Bitcoin could remain range-bound between $60,000 and $80,000 through December, dampening risk appetite.
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