The Sui (SUI) token is currently trading at a critical juncture, with its price testing a long-term ascending trendline that has historically preceded massive rallies. After a steep decline of over 75% from its all-time high of $5.35 in January 2025, SUI is now at $1.36, facing key support zones between $0.90 and $0.75.
Technical analysis indicates that a recent liquidity sweep has sparked bullish weekly setups, with potential for a reversal if the price holds above these levels. Analysts note that reclaiming the $4.80 level could signal improved market structure, but this requires sustained volume and broader risk-on conditions.
Despite the price weakness, on-chain data shows a 900% year-to-date increase in total accounts on the Sui network, rising from 26 million to 230 million. However, Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped from $2.63 billion to $947.25 million, and stablecoin market cap fell from $1.186 billion to $657.16 million, reflecting liquidity pressures.
Token unlock events, such as the November 1 release of 43.96 million SUI (approximately 1.21% of circulating supply), have added short-term selling pressure. Conversely, institutional interest remains, with Mill City Ventures allocating $450 million to Sui, potentially supporting long-term growth.
Price forecasts vary, with short-term models projecting a range of $1.82 to $3.85 for November 2025, and longer-term estimates up to $6.81 by year-end. Historical patterns suggest that if the support trendline holds, SUI could see rallies of 450% to 750%, similar to past cycles, targeting levels up to $8.50.
Market performance shows SUI down 39% over 30 days and 9.5% in the past 24 hours, with RSI at 25 indicating oversold conditions. The token trades below key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish structure, but a breakout above mid-range resistances like $1.63 and $2.38 could indicate a mean-reversion move.
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