Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading between $86,000 and $87,000, showing signs of recovery after recent sharp declines. According to analysis from K33 Research, BTC is psychologically oversold, indicating a potential long-term buying opportunity for investors.
The analysis highlights that over the past month, Bitcoin has underperformed the Nasdaq for nearly 70% of the period, with its correlation to US stocks increasing. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, explained that this trend reflects a risk-off environment and ongoing selling pressure, leading to a pattern where BTC falls more sharply and recovers more weakly than US stocks.
Lunde noted that the last three significant periods of Bitcoin lagging behind the Nasdaq coincided with crypto-specific events: the Mt. Gox and German government sell-offs in July 2024, and massive Grayscale outflows in January 2024. K33 Research argues that the cryptocurrency market is fundamentally different from previous cycles due to significant policy changes, making it an opportune time for long-term investing.
However, the firm warned that capital may not enter the market simultaneously, citing high open interest in the futures market and the absence of a W-shaped recovery pattern, meaning a rapid price rise is not expected.
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