Gold has significantly outperformed Bitcoin, with a 58% surge since January 2024 compared to Bitcoin's approximate 12% decline. Gold reached a record $4,381 per ounce in October and currently trades near $4,216, up nearly 59% year-to-date, while Bitcoin tumbled 21% in November alone, dropping to the low $80,000s before recovering toward $91,000.
Central banks and major institutions are driving this trend, with the World Gold Council's 2025 survey revealing that a record 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, up from 81% in 2024. Additionally, 76% anticipate gold will occupy a larger share of total reserves within five years. Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years, double the prior decade's average.
Russia's central bank emphasized that emerging-market reserve managers are diversifying into gold due to geopolitical tensions, noting gold's lack of counterparty risk as a key advantage. Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin, now holds 116 tonnes of gold, rivaling reserves of countries like South Korea and Greece. Jefferies estimates Tether's Q3 purchases accounted for 2% of global gold demand and nearly 12% of central-bank buying that quarter.
Expert analysis underscores the infrastructure gap: Mark Connors, founder of Risk Dimensions, stated that Bitcoin is "still too young" and lacks the established trade channels and settlement mechanisms that gold benefits from. André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe noted Bitcoin is "pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2020 and 2022," leading capital to flow toward proven liquidity havens like gold in risk-off environments.
Major banks reinforce gold's appeal, with Goldman Sachs projecting $4,900 by late 2026, UBS targeting $4,500 by mid-year, and Deutsche Bank forecasting a 2026 average of $4,450. Despite this, some analysts see potential for Bitcoin to rebound if macro conditions improve, offering "asymmetric risk-reward" in the long term.
