Apple Inc. is on track for a historic year in 2025, with projections indicating it will shatter its previous iPhone shipment record. According to new forecasts from research firm IDC, Apple is expected to ship 247.4 million iPhones this year. This represents a 6% year-over-year increase and surpasses the company's prior record of 236 million units set in 2021 with the iPhone 13.
The surge is attributed primarily to the "phenomenal success" of the latest iPhone 17 series. IDC senior research director Nabila Popal highlighted that "massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance," particularly in China. The company's comeback in the Chinese market is a key driver, with IDC revising its forecast for Apple's Q4 2025 shipments in China to a 17% year-over-year jump, up from a previous 9% growth expectation.
This performance has led IDC to revise its outlook for China's entire smartphone market from a predicted 1% decline to 3% growth for 2025. Apple's market share in China exceeded 20% in October and November, putting it "miles ahead of the competition." Strong demand in the US and Western Europe has also contributed to the global uptick.
CEO Tim Cook has expressed strong confidence, stating in October that the company expects total revenue to grow 10-12% year-over-year in the December quarter, with iPhone revenue growing at double digits. He called consumer reception to the iPhone 17 lineup "off the chart," citing increased store traffic and global enthusiasm. Apple's guidance suggests December quarter revenue could reach approximately $138 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $132.31 billion.
Looking ahead, IDC predicts a potential slowdown in 2026, forecasting a 4.2% drop in iPhone shipments. This is linked to Apple's plan to break its traditional release cycle by delaying the base iPhone 18 model until spring 2027, while launching high-end models in fall 2026. A global memory shortage may also create supply constraints.
Separately, Counterpoint Research forecasts that 2025 will mark the first time in 14 years that Apple will ship more smartphones than Samsung, further underscoring the company's dominant performance.
