Crypto Market Braces for FOMC Decision Amid Regulatory Talks and Major Bitcoin Accumulation

The cryptocurrency market is navigating a confluence of significant events as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting on December 9, 2025. Bitcoin, after briefly touching $92,000, has dipped below $90,000, stabilizing around $90,370 with a 0.5% 24-hour gain amidst heightened volatility. Total market capitalization hovers near $3.2 trillion, reflecting a cautious sentiment ahead of the pivotal monetary policy announcement.

Market participants are widely anticipating a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, with markets pricing in an 85–87% probability. This would be the third consecutive reduction in 2025, responding to easing inflation (around 2.9%) and a cooling labor market. The potential cut aims to spur economic growth, and historically, such monetary easing has weakened the dollar and supported risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Analysts note that while a brief "sell the news" dip is possible, abundant liquidity over time typically benefits digital assets, mirroring dynamics from 2020.

Concurrently, regulatory developments are advancing in Washington. Democrats have reportedly met privately to review a Republican compromise draft of the Crypto Market Structure Bill (CMSB), reigniting discussions on long-term crypto market structure. This legislative effort intersects with a major accumulation trend, as Michael Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, announced a new purchase of 10,624 BTC for approximately $962.7 million. This acquisition, executed at an average price of ~$90,615 per bitcoin, brings MicroStrategy's total holdings to 660,624 BTC, acquired for roughly $49.35 billion at an average cost basis of $74,696. The firm's 2025 yield stands at 24.7%, underscoring its conviction.

In a separate but notable regulatory development, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has concluded its two-year investigation into ONDO Finance without bringing any charges. The probe focused on whether the firm's tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), particularly treasuries, and the ONDO token itself constituted securities. The closure is seen as a positive signal for the tokenized assets sector, which now holds a total market value of $30 billion.

Market activity shows nuanced flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $60.5 million in net outflows on Monday, indicating institutional caution. Conversely, Ethereum sees significant whale activity, with one notable entity (the "Trump Tariff Whale") holding a $196 million long position on ETH with 5x leverage. Among altcoins, privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) stands out, gaining 18% weekly to trade around $406, as some capital rotates into the sector amid market uncertainty.

Technical analysis adds to the narrative, with Bitcoin's weekly RSI hitting a level historically associated with major market bottoms, such as those in 2015, 2018, and 2022. This has led some analysts to speculate that 2026 could mirror past multi-year expansion periods. All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for guidance that will shape risk appetite heading into the new year.