Barclays Cuts Coinbase Price Target to $291 Amid Valuation Concerns and Strategic Expansion

Barclays has significantly reduced its price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) from $357 to $291 while maintaining an 'Equal Weight' rating. The revision, announced on December 12, reflects a "more mixed" outlook for cryptocurrency exchanges compared to alternative asset managers in the bank's 2026 sector reset. COIN was trading at approximately $270.20 at the time of the announcement, down from highs above $400 in November.

The downgrade follows a period of strong financial performance from Coinbase. On October 30, the exchange reported third-quarter revenue of around $1.9 billion, with transaction revenue of roughly $1.0 billion. Net income surged to approximately $433 million, or $1.50 per share, a substantial increase from $75.5 million a year earlier. This beat market expectations and initially boosted the stock.

Despite the strong earnings, analyst sentiment has shifted due to valuation concerns. Argus downgraded COIN from Buy to Hold on November 25, noting the stock traded at about 39 times forward earnings, compared to mid-20s multiples for other exchanges. Goldman Sachs also lowered its target to $314, and Erste Group shifted from Buy to Hold as valuations expanded through November. Barclays' new $291 target incorporates this sector positioning shift.

Coinbase is concurrently pushing forward with an aggressive "everything exchange" strategy. In October, the company agreed to acquire Echo, a digital asset investment and tokenization platform, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $375 million. This acquisition is seen as adding medium-term revenue drivers through token issuance and structured products infrastructure.

Further strategic moves include rebranding Coinbase Wallet as the Base app in November, tied to a roadmap encompassing prediction markets and tokenized assets on its Layer-2 network. Reports indicate a December 17 event will unveil in-house tokenized equities and a full prediction markets offering, deepening a partnership with Kalshi. Additionally, Coinbase and Standard Chartered announced an expanded institutional partnership this week to build out trading, prime, custody, staking, and lending services.

Regulatory challenges persist, adding pressure. In early November, Ireland's Central Bank fined Coinbase Europe €21.5 million for anti-money laundering control failures between 2020 and 2023. The exchange plans to shift much of its EU hub structure to Luxembourg, which adds a governance and compliance overhang.

Technical analysts are monitoring the stock's price action. Trader Bryant highlighted a "golden signal" on December 12, where large institutional volume appeared, similar to a pattern that previously drove COIN from $320 to $400. Another trader, 'Cantonese Cat', shared a weekly chart on December 10 highlighting historical accumulation patterns, noting COIN is testing a resistance channel similar to one it broke through in 2023, leading to a nearly threefold price increase.

The stock now trades between competing narratives: a profitable infrastructure leader executing a bold expansion strategy versus an over-owned, richly valued exchange facing regulatory headwinds and analyst downgrades.