Bitcoin is showing significant signs of a potential market recovery, with two key technical analyses pointing to easing selling pressure and resurgent buying interest. According to data from CryptoQuant contributor RugaResearch, the 90-day market price to realized price slope oscillator has turned positive for the first time in weeks, reaching a value of 0.07. This marks a dramatic reversal from its reading of -3.22 on February 5, when it fell below the -2 standard deviation threshold indicating extreme market stress.
The momentum indicator's recovery suggests accelerating buying pressure and improving market sentiment. This technical metric measures the rate of change between Bitcoin's current market price and its realized price—the average price at which all circulating Bitcoin was last moved—over a three-month period. A positive reading indicates market prices are strengthening relative to investor cost bases. Bitcoin currently trades around $70,000, representing approximately a 25% premium over its realized price of $54,500.
Simultaneously, research firm K33 reports that Bitcoin has entered its most extreme weekly oversold zone in history. This condition follows months of systematic selling from long-term holders and institutions, though that pressure is now showing signs of easing. Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $71,000 level with roughly 7% daily gains. K33 emphasizes that the market appears to be moving from a phase dominated by forced or programmatic selling to one where spot demand can have a clearer impact on price.
Despite these positive technical developments, derivatives markets signal continued caution. Funding rates on major perpetual futures have normalized to near-neutral levels, and open interest has climbed from local lows in a measured fashion, avoiding the unchecked leverage build-up that often precedes sharp liquidations. Options markets show persistent demand for puts and elevated implied volatility around key macro dates, reflecting ongoing concern about downside scenarios.
RugaResearch notes an important caveat: while the 90-day indicator is positive, the 365-day simple moving average for the same metric remains at -0.22, indicating that long-term momentum has not yet confirmed the recovery signaled by the shorter-term data. Historical analysis reveals that previous transitions of this momentum indicator from negative to positive territory have often preceded sustained price appreciation periods. For instance, a previous positive cycle with a reading of +0.85 at a Bitcoin price of $58,200 was followed by 30-day performance of +18.2%.
K33 characterizes Bitcoin's current state as one of "exhausted sellers" rather than a fully confirmed trend reversal. The firm suggests that similar oversold readings in past years often preceded medium-term recovery phases, though the timing and strength varied depending on macro conditions and liquidity. The current backdrop includes U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting steady inflows and growing institutional integration from platforms like Coinbase.
The key test in the coming weeks will be whether Bitcoin can hold above reclaimed support zones while leverage remains contained, confirming a transition from forced selling to a more sustainable, accumulation-driven phase.
