Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $86,500, having fallen nearly 30% from its October high above $126,000. The asset is moving sideways after a sharp drop earlier in December, with no clear sign of a trend reversal despite small bounces.
The key technical barrier is now at $88,000. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the trend remains down and "a breakout above $88K is required" to adjust it. Bitcoin briefly touched $88,000 this week before falling back toward $87,500, reflecting uncertain movement within a 7-day range of $85,100 to $93,000.
Crypt analyst Lingrid maps a bearish trajectory, noting Bitcoin has been "capped below channel border" with multiple rejections between $92,500 and $93,500. This pattern suggests the formation of lower highs. Lingrid's analysis indicates that if Bitcoin rises to $92,550 before facing rejection, it could trigger a further decline toward $82,000 to establish lower lows.
Long-term technical damage is becoming evident. Bitcoin has lost the Supertrend support on the weekly chart for the first time since January 2023, marking the first major break of structure since the current bull cycle began. Analyst Kamran Asghar warns that deeper support levels may be tested, pointing to a zone between $72,000 and $75,000 that hasn't been touched since the 2024 breakout.
Adding to selling pressure, long-term holders are exiting positions at their fastest pace in seven years. However, the recent price drop is being linked primarily to liquidations across leverage-heavy positions rather than spot selling, reflecting a flush of excess leverage rather than weakness in underlying demand.
The bearish thesis could be invalidated if Bitcoin breaks out and sustains a move above $92,500, shifting focus back toward $100,000. But with current sentiment mostly negative and selling pressure still stronger than demand, analysts consider the chances of such a breakout slim.
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