A sharp public dispute has erupted within the Bitcoin community regarding the urgency and public discussion of quantum computing threats. The debate was ignited by an exchange on X between Blockstream CEO Adam Back and Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter.
Back publicly rebuked Carter for amplifying concerns about quantum risks to Bitcoin, calling his posts "uninformed noise" and stating they were "not helping." Back argued that Bitcoin developers are actively but quietly researching quantum-resistant defenses, describing the technology as "ridiculously early" and predicting no real threat for decades. He emphasized that loud public warnings cause confusion rather than useful action.
Carter pushed back, stating he had been "quantum pilled" after discussions with Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden and that his firm's investment in the quantum-defense startup was driven by deep concern. He disclosed his financial stake in an October 20 Substack post and accused some developers of being in "total denial." Carter warned that governments are planning for a post-quantum era and labeled Bitcoin a tempting "bug bounty" if its cryptography remains unchanged.
The debate highlights a fundamental split: whether preparation should be a visible part of Bitcoin's roadmap or remain behind the scenes. Technical proposals like Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360) exist, which would introduce quantum-resistant address formats for a gradual, opt-in transition. However, reaching consensus on such long-horizon risks is challenging within Bitcoin's conservative governance model.
Industry figures are divided on the timeline. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warned a threat could emerge in 2–9 years without quantum-resistant cryptography. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has cited forecasting models suggesting roughly a 20% chance of machines capable of breaking modern cryptography arriving before 2030, with a median projection near 2040. Conversely, investor Kevin O'Leary expressed skepticism, doubting that attacking Bitcoin would be the most valuable use of quantum technology.
The core tension is not about an imminent attack but about visibility and preparedness. With entities like the U.S. government planning to phase out current cryptographic standards by the mid-2030s, the question of whether Bitcoin has a credible, communicated upgrade path remains a persistent source of debate within its ecosystem.
