Nvidia's stock (NVDA) rose 3.93% on Monday as investors reacted positively to progress in U.S.–China export approvals for the company's H200 AI chips. The Commerce Department has submitted license applications to multiple federal agencies, signaling that shipments to China could soon become a reality. Analysts note that China represents a massive market for AI-accelerated computing, and even limited exports could contribute significantly to Nvidia's revenue.
Despite the enthusiasm, political risks remain. Congressional scrutiny is intensifying, and any policy reversals could affect the pace of shipments. "The market is now pricing both the revenue potential and the regulatory uncertainty," said a tech analyst tracking semiconductor trends.
Wall Street analysts have maintained their bullish ratings on Nvidia despite valuation concerns and increasing competition from rivals like Broadcom, AMD, and Google's tensor processors. Bank of America's Vivek Arya, after a meeting with Nvidia's investor relations, reiterated a Buy rating with a $275 price target. He highlighted that Nvidia has visibility into at least $500 billion of combined demand and supply across its Blackwell, Rubin, and networking products for 2025 and 2026, a figure that does not include recent letters of intent with OpenAI and Anthropic/Microsoft.
Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon also kept a Buy rating and $275 target, noting the $500 billion outlook could see further upside. He reported that Nvidia believes it sits about two years ahead of Google's TPU program. Regarding exports, Rasgon addressed that Nvidia is still waiting on licenses for H200 shipments to China and has not received details on how a proposed 25% revenue share to the U.S. would be handled.
Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis maintained a bullish $250 target, stating, "We haven't given up on NVDA given the technology moat and valuation." He expects Blackwell-based large language models (LLMs) to arrive in early 2026 and forecasts the CPX chip could generate $13 billion in revenue in 2027.
Beyond hardware, Nvidia strengthened its AI ecosystem with the acquisition of SchedMD, the company behind the open-source Slurm workload manager. This move allows Nvidia to integrate more deeply into the AI infrastructure stack, positioning itself as a broader AI infrastructure provider rather than just a chip supplier.
