The Pi Network's native token, PI, is facing a critical juncture as the year ends, trading just above a crucial $0.20 support level. Having debuted in early 2025, the token has experienced a volatile year, plummeting over 93% from its all-time high near $3.00 in late February. The broader market's painful Q4 offered no respite, though PI showed relative resilience during the worst of the October and November crashes before losing momentum in recent weeks.
AI predictions for a potential "Santa Rally" are largely cautious. ChatGPT highlighted the importance of the $0.20 support, warning that a break below could lead to a retest of the all-time low near $0.172. While noting the current trend as "short-term bearish," it assessed the overall macro outlook as neutral. Both Grok and Perplexity were dismissive of a significant rally, suggesting PI would only benefit from a major team announcement or network upgrade. They deemed a rally beyond the $0.22-$0.24 resistance to $0.26 as possible but with "low" probability, forecasting sideways trading between $0.19 and $0.22 as the most likely scenario. The consensus is that a major crash is unlikely as long as the $0.20 support holds.
Concurrently, technical indicators suggest a potential shift in holder sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a bullish crossover, ending a nearly 20-day bearish momentum phase and indicating strengthening upside potential. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has also turned positive, moving above the zero line to confirm net buying activity and capital inflows over the past 24 hours.
At press time, PI trades near $0.207, just below the key $0.213 resistance, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Reclaiming this level as support is seen as critical for a recovery, potentially opening a path toward $0.224. However, failure to hold current levels could see the price test supports at $0.199 and $0.188, which would invalidate the emerging bullish technical structure.
