IMF Negotiations with El Salvador Over Bitcoin Policy Reach Critical Phase Amid Contradictory Signals

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided an update on its ongoing negotiations with the El Salvadoran government, stating that discussions regarding the country's Bitcoin project and the sale of its government-operated e-wallet, Chivo, are "well advanced." The talks are centered on enhancing transparency, safeguarding public resources, and eliminating financial risks associated with the nation's Bitcoin strategy.

The IMF's statement, issued by Mission Chief Mr. Torres, outlines progress on the second review of El Salvador's 40-month, $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. The agency praised the country's strong economic performance, noting that GDP is expected to reach around 4% growth this year, exceeding expectations. The IMF acknowledged El Salvador's commitment to fiscal consolidation and highlighted several completed structural reforms, including new financial stability laws, Basel III banking regulations, and an updated Anti-Money Laundering (AML/CFT) law.

However, a core point of contention remains El Salvador's Bitcoin accumulation. As part of the EFF agreement announced in 2024, El Salvador, under President Nayib Bukele, agreed to cease all public Bitcoin involvement, including purchasing and mining, and to liquidate its Bitcoin fund. The IMF has demanded full compliance by December 2025. The agency's latest report from November alleged that no new accumulation is happening and that increases in Bitcoin holdings reflect the consolidation of existing government wallets.

This claim directly contradicts public statements and on-chain data. The country's Bitcoin Office, led by Stacy Herbert, has consistently stated that El Salvador continues to buy Bitcoin, "defying" the IMF deal. On December 22, the government announced it had increased its holdings to 7,509 BTC, attributing the milestone to purchasing one BTC per day. Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham confirms the ongoing daily accumulation, with holdings at approximately 7,508 BTC.

The negotiations also involve the sale of the Chivo e-wallet infrastructure to the private sector, while maintaining Bitcoin's status as legal tender. The IMF expects "close engagement" to continue with the goal of reaching a staff-level agreement on all policies needed to complete the program's second review.