A historic year-end event is unfolding in crypto derivatives markets today, December 26, with a record-breaking $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expiring on the Deribit exchange. This expiry, representing over half of Deribit's total open interest, is the largest on record and combines the monthly and quarterly (Q4 2025) expiry events.
Bitcoin options dominate the event, with a notional value of approximately $23.4 billion to $23.6 billion from around 263,000 contracts. Ethereum options account for the remaining $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion from about 1.25 million contracts. The market exhibits a distinctly bullish tilt, with a put/call ratio of 0.36-0.37 for Bitcoin and 0.45 for Ethereum, meaning call options (bets on price increases) vastly outnumber puts.
Analysts are closely watching the 'max pain' price levels, where the most financial loss occurs for options buyers. For Bitcoin, this level is around $96,000, while for Ethereum it is near $3,100. Despite the event's massive scale, the market appears calm, with Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) at around 42%, down from 63% in late November.
Deribit analysts emphasized that "post-expiry flows will matter more than price" and questioned how the market would react to an expiry of this magnitude. Greeks Live noted that "rollover trades are now the dominant force in trading volume," as many institutions shift positions to January contracts to mitigate risk, creating noise in short-term options data.
Key price levels in focus include a $2.2 billion cluster of Bitcoin open interest at the $100,000 strike price and significant put open interest at $85,000. For Ethereum, call interest is concentrated above $3,000. Spot markets have remained relatively flat ahead of the expiry, with Bitcoin trading around $88,850 and Ethereum below $3,000. The outcome of this structural reset is expected to influence market direction and potentially ease upside resistance as the industry heads into 2026.
