The cryptocurrency market is entering the final trading days of 2025 with thin liquidity, making it highly sensitive to upcoming U.S. macroeconomic events. Traders of major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are advised to exercise caution as even modest surprises in economic data could trigger exaggerated price swings.
The focal point is the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Tuesday, December 30. These minutes from the December 9-10 meeting, where the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, will be scrutinized for clues on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts in 2026. The tone—whether cautious or confident—could significantly influence risk appetite across equities and crypto markets.
On Wednesday, December 31, Initial Jobless Claims data will provide fresh insight into the U.S. labor market. Claims have hovered near historic lows around 214,000, with economists expecting a minor increase to about 215,000. In thin trading conditions, even a small deviation from expectations could pressure risk assets if it tempers rate-cut optimism, or support them if it reinforces expectations for monetary easing.
Liquidity is expected to be exceptionally thin, with U.S. stock markets closed on Thursday, January 1, for New Year's Day. This environment in 24/7 crypto markets increases the risk of sharp, short-term volatility spikes rather than the establishment of sustained trends.
Technical levels are in focus for traders. For Bitcoin, holding above the $89,500–$90,000 support zone is critical. A dovish read from the FOMC or weaker jobless data could help BTC reclaim $90,500 and target the $93,000–$93,650 resistance area. Conversely, a break below $89,500 could see a pullback toward $87,500–$88,000. Ethereum, expected to track Bitcoin with higher volatility, is consolidating above key support near $2,900–$3,000. A positive macro reaction could help ETH challenge the $3,200–$3,300 resistance, while failure to hold $2,900 may expose a deeper correction toward $2,700–$2,650.
The overall crypto market capitalization saw a slight 0.45% increase to $2.98 trillion in the past 24 hours, but the prevailing sentiment is one of cautious selectivity as traders await clearer signals once normal liquidity returns in the new year.
