The price of Pepe (PEPE), the fourth-largest meme coin by market capitalization, has experienced a severe and prolonged decline over the past few months. The token has crashed from its year-to-date high of $0.00002800 to its current trading range of approximately $0.0000041 to $0.00000426, erasing over $8.33 billion in value. PEPE's market cap has collapsed from an all-time high exceeding $10 billion to around $1.7 billion.
This decline is part of a broader crypto market crash that has hit meme coins particularly hard. The total market capitalization for the meme coin sector has fallen from over $100 billion earlier in the year to about $42 billion. On-chain data reveals a significant sell-off by large holders. Whale accounts have dumped over 70 billion PEPE tokens, reducing their holdings from a monthly high of 4.54 trillion to 4.47 trillion. Similarly, "smart money" investors have reduced their holdings from 172 billion to 168.78 billion tokens.
Trading activity has also weakened substantially. Spot market volume for PEPE has dwindled to $195 million, while futures open interest has plummeted from a yearly high near $1 billion to roughly $240 million.
From a technical analysis perspective, the weekly chart shows PEPE trading below its 50-week moving average, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) rising to 27, indicating a strengthening downtrend. A bearish head-and-shoulders pattern has been confirmed, with the price breaking below the neckline at $0.000005610. This pattern suggests a potential further decline, with initial targets at the October low of $0.000002835 and possibly the $0.0000020 support level.
Despite the overwhelming bearish pressure, some analysts note that buyers are attempting to defend the $0.000004 support zone, as evidenced by long-wick rejections on the daily chart. For any meaningful recovery, PEPE must break above a key descending trendline originating from the July 2025 high. Resistance levels are identified at $0.00000495, $0.00000550, $0.00000650, $0.00000735, and a more ambitious target of $0.00001025 should a bullish breakout occur.
Algorithmic models project a wide range of future scenarios, from a potential 2025 peak of $0.000035 under optimal conditions to average price targets of $0.0050 in 2026 and $0.0073 in 2027. However, analysts universally caution that PEPE's price action remains highly dependent on speculative market sentiment and liquidity cycles rather than fundamental value, underscoring the inherent volatility of the meme coin asset class.
