Bitcoin (BTC) is entering 2026 in a state of technical compression, trading within a tight range just below the critical $90,000 psychological level. The price has hovered below this barrier for nearly three weeks, following a rejection from the $110,000 area. On the daily chart, BTC is forming a symmetrical triangle, compressing between descending resistance and rising support near $88,000–$90,000, signaling declining volatility rather than panic selling.
Beneath the calm surface, conflicting on-chain signals are emerging from large holders. One analysis points to aggressive accumulation by new whales, with the realized cap of these entities surging to record highs, suggesting fresh capital is entering the market. Conversely, data from Santiment indicates that mega whales (wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC) have sold over 50,000 BTC (worth approximately $4.47 billion) in just four days, bringing their collective balance to a two-month low.
Despite this significant selling pressure, Bitcoin's price has shown resilience. Momentum indicators like the RSI (14) are stabilizing around the 50 level, showing balance. Furthermore, Bitcoin's aggregate open interest across exchanges has rebounded sharply toward $30.5 billion even as the spot price remains range-bound, a divergence that often signals traders are positioning for a future volatility expansion.
Key technical levels are clearly defined for traders. Immediate resistance lies between $90,400 and $91,000, with a breakout potentially exposing the $98,000–$100,600 zone. Critical support is at $88,000, with a break below risking a move toward $83,000–$85,000. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap identifies $88,000-$88,500 as a strong demand zone (supported by ~201,474 BTC accumulation), with further resistance near $90,500 and a major level at $92,700.
The market appears to be in a positioning phase. The combination of new whale accumulation, recovering open interest, and price compression suggests the structure favors a decisive move. The ongoing battle between new capital inflows and distribution from established mega whales will likely determine the direction of Bitcoin's next significant leg.
