According to analysis shared by Michaël van de Poppe, a growing macro pattern suggests Bitcoin often delivers its strongest rallies only after gold finishes a major advance. The comparison chart highlights multiple historical periods where gold surged to new highs, entered consolidation, and was then followed by explosive upside in Bitcoin. Rather than competing assets, the two appear to move in sequence, reflecting shifts in global capital behavior during periods of macro stress.
Van de Poppe points to 2016–2017 as a clear example. Gold peaked first and moved sideways, while Bitcoin later entered a powerful bull run that defined the cycle. A similar structure emerged again in 2020. Gold reached new all-time highs, paused, and shortly afterward Bitcoin began a multi-year expansion phase. In both cases, the transition occurred after gold absorbed defensive capital, with investors gradually rotating profits into higher-beta assets like crypto.
The latest data shows gold once again reaching record levels and becoming increasingly extended. Historically, this phase has coincided with profit-taking in gold rather than immediate continuation, opening a window for capital reallocation. Van de Poppe emphasizes this reflects a broader macroeconomic shift where liquidity moves from safe-haven assets into growth-oriented markets once risk appetite returns.
The analysis suggests the coming 1.5 to 2 years could represent a critical period for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market if the historical pattern repeats. Gold strength, followed by consolidation, has previously marked the early stages of major crypto expansions. As Van de Poppe puts it, this cycle appears less about isolated assets and more about where global capital flows next.
Supporting the macro narrative, 2025 saw gold (XAU) surge nearly 65% to a record $4,500, while Bitcoin finished the year down 6.30%. Capital favored safety over risk as macro pressures built up from inflation and a U.S. federal shutdown. However, recent economic data shows a shift, with November inflation dropping to 2.7% and core CPI and PCE dipping below the Fed's 2% target, potentially setting the stage for capital rotation.
The preference for gold-related assets remains evident in Q4 2025, with tokenized gold (XAUT) rallying 13% while BTC slid 24%. This divergence is reinforced by investor behavior, including a whale who lost $18.8 million trading Ethereum before rotating into gold, and six wallets acquiring 3,102 XAUT worth $13.7 million, signaling strategic positioning ahead of macro developments.
