Analysis of Bitcoin's current market cycle reveals a significant departure from historical patterns, with the next major price expansion potentially delayed until 2027-2029. According to recent market research, Bitcoin's classic four-year cycle is statistically breaking down as the market matures, leading to longer and more complex phases of compression and expansion.
Gold has already broken through long-term resistance, a move that has historically preceded Bitcoin's major expansions. However, Bitcoin's price action remains compressed, trading near $91,500, which is roughly 26% below its modeled long-term trend of $124,500. This suggests the market is in a phase of discount and accumulation rather than euphoria.
A key finding from a log-periodic power law (LPPL) analysis of over 5,600 daily observations is the statistical rejection of a fixed four-year cycle. The LPPL model outperformed the traditional halving-based model by a decisive margin, indicating Bitcoin's cycles are becoming less rigid and more stretched over time.
Furthermore, this cycle is marked by an inverted liquidity structure. Analyst Sykodelic notes that Bitcoin rallied from around $15,000 to over $100,000 while global liquidity was range-bound, a phenomenon never seen before. In prior cycles, Bitcoin's parabolic surge coincided with peaks in the global liquidity index. Now, liquidity is only beginning to stabilize at levels seen during the 2022 bear market bottom.
The delay in a parabolic move is attributed to new structural demand sources, such as persistent inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and government-level adoption, which have supported price despite limited macro liquidity. Simultaneously, capital has been absorbed by traditional equity markets, particularly the AI-stock boom.
The projection is that once quantitative easing expands and the global liquidity index turns upward, Bitcoin may begin the delayed parabolic behavior needed to reach new highs. The analysis suggests the strongest expansion window may now unfold between 2027 and 2029.
