Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by a US-led operation, two major Bitcoin-related developments have emerged that could reshape the country's future and global crypto markets. María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, is now a leading contender to replace Maduro, with a 28% chance of leading Venezuela by the end of 2026 according to predictions market Kalshi. Machado has publicly advocated for Bitcoin, calling it a "lifeline" for Venezuelans during hyperinflation and envisioning making it a national reserve asset and payments solution in a new democratic Venezuela.
Concurrently, intelligence reports have revealed Venezuela may have amassed a clandestine "shadow reserve" of 600,000–660,000 BTC, valued between $60 billion and $67 billion. This would make Venezuela one of the largest Bitcoin holders globally, rivaling institutional giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy, and representing roughly 3% of Bitcoin's circulating supply.
The alleged reserve was accumulated starting in 2018 through gold swaps (converting ~$2B in gold proceeds at an average BTC price of $5,000), oil settlements in Tether (USDT) via state oil company PDVSA, and domestic mining seizures. The US now faces critical decisions regarding this massive stockpile, with potential scenarios including freezing the assets in litigation, adding them to a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or liquidation through auctions. Analysts believe freezing or incorporating the Bitcoin into a strategic reserve is most likely, which could lock up supply for 5–10 years and create a bullish narrative.
The scale of Venezuela's alleged holdings dwarfs previous government sales, such as Germany's 2024 sale of 50,000 BTC that triggered a 15–20% market correction. A seizure or freeze of Venezuela's 600,000+ BTC could trigger unprecedented supply shocks, reducing liquidity and supporting higher prices.
Machado's potential rise adds another layer. She has stated, "Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape. It has evolved from a humanitarian tool to a vital means of resistance." However, US President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about her ability to lead, stating she lacks the necessary support and respect within the country.
The news highlights Venezuela's remarkable grassroots crypto adoption, driven by hyperinflation where the bolívar has lost over 99.99% of its purchasing power since 2013. By late 2025, up to 10% of grocery payments and nearly 40% of peer-to-peer transactions were conducted in crypto, with stablecoin remittances accounting for nearly 10% of inflows.
