Bitcoin (BTC) has shown its first "registered bullish" signal in ten months, according to analysis from VanEck's MarketVector Crypto Heat Index. The index, which helps determine whether the crypto market is overheated or undervalued, recorded a 16.8% drop and entered the "Undervalued" zone, triggering a "Buy" signal for the first time since early April 2025.
Martin Leinweber, Digital Asset Product Strategist at MarketVector, stated that the index's characteristic moving averages had recently crossed into the bullish zone, suggesting that further selling pressure was unlikely. He interpreted this low valuation as a signal of accumulation. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research, confirmed that the company's proprietary models also indicated the first bullish signal for BTC in months.
Historically, "Buy" signals from this index have yielded an average return of 20.4% for Bitcoin in 90 days and 76.7% in one year. This signal comes after Bitcoin experienced a major crash towards the end of 2025, ending a year full of new all-time highs on a weak note, followed by a slight recovery in the first days of 2026.
The bullish signal aligns with a broader analysis of six powerful factors that fueled a cryptocurrency resurgence in early 2025. These include: 1) Catch-up trading following gold's outperformance, creating a valuation gap; 2) Attractive pricing with Bitcoin trading approximately 25% below its all-time high; 3) A favorable macroeconomic environment with expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts totaling 75-100 basis points; 4) Regulatory clarity from jurisdictions like the EU (MiCA framework) and the UK; 5) Sustained institutional capital inflows, with Bitcoin exchange-traded products attracting approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows in Q1 2025 alone; and 6) Strengthening network fundamentals, including a record hash rate and growing Lightning Network adoption.
The rally demonstrated greater institutional participation and resilience compared to previous cycles, with demand emerging from both emerging markets using BTC as a hedge and developed markets treating it as a portfolio diversifier.
