Analysts from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group warn that comprehensive U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation is unlikely to pass in 2026, with the bill now expected to slip into 2027. The full implementation of final regulatory rules could be delayed until 2029.
The central obstacle is a conflict-of-interest dispute. Democratic lawmakers are pushing for strict ethics provisions that would bar senior government officials and their family members from owning or operating crypto businesses. These provisions directly reference concerns involving President Donald Trump and his family, who have been linked to crypto ventures like the World Liberty Financial DeFi and stablecoin project and hold a stake in bitcoin miner American Bitcoin. Bloomberg previously estimated Trump earned about $620 million from family-linked crypto ventures.
TD Cowen's managing director, Jaret Seiberg, explained that such language faces firm resistance from Republicans if applied immediately to the current administration. The emerging compromise is to delay the enforcement of these conflict rules by approximately three years. This would allow the broader regulatory framework to advance while postponing the politically sensitive ethics provisions until a future administration.
Political incentives are also favoring delay. With Democrats needing to provide at least seven votes to overcome a Senate filibuster, they have significant leverage. Analysts note Democrats may wait, especially if they expect to gain ground in the 2026 midterm elections, which could allow them to revisit provisions under more favorable conditions later.
Despite the delay for the overarching market structure bill, work is expected to continue on specific components like the CLARITY Act in early 2026. However, TD Cowen's assessment indicates that the most consequential regulatory changes for the U.S. crypto industry are still several years away.
