Data from Memento Research reveals a stark reality for the 2025 crypto launch landscape: a staggering 85% of new tokens from 118 tracked Token Generation Events (TGEs) are now trading below their initial valuations. The median token has plummeted more than 70% from its starting price, marking a dramatic shift from the frothy 2021 bull cycle where tokens like MATIC, FTM, and AVAX saw immediate post-launch surges.
The weakness was pervasive throughout the year. Listings on major centralized exchanges like Binance, once seen as bullish signals, often triggered immediate sell-offs. This underperformance is attributed to a depressed altcoin market following the February memecoin bubble burst, Bitcoin's continued outperformance leaving little capital for speculative new tokens, and a trader mindset focused on extracting quick profits rather than holding long-term.
A core issue identified is misaligned token distribution. Broad airdrops and large exchange allocation programs maximized liquidity but flooded the market with holders who had no connection to the underlying product. This created overwhelming selling pressure from traders focused on short-term price moves, making it difficult for projects to control their narrative. High-profile projects like Plasma (XPL) and Monad were not immune, with XPL falling from $2.00 at its September debut to below $0.20.
Furthermore, many tokens lacked a clear, essential utility within their ecosystems, being issued before genuine demand existed. The failure of a U.S. market structure bill in 2025, as noted by Mike Dudas of venture firm 6MV, added regulatory uncertainty, leading teams to issue cautious, "stripped-down" tokens that avoided features which might attract scrutiny but also gave holders little long-term reason to own them.
The report suggests the path forward involves a fundamental reset in launch strategy. The blanket CEX airdrop model is losing credibility. Instead, teams may increasingly adopt usage-based distribution models—similar to those used by Optimism and Blur—where tokens are earned through demonstrated engagement like paying fees, running infrastructure, or participating in governance. This slower, harder approach aims to ensure tokens accrue to actual users, aligning long-term incentives and tying value to real usage rather than trading momentum.
