Ethereum (ETH) has broken out of a two-month descending wedge pattern, signaling a potential shift to renewed bullish momentum and projecting a technical upside target of $4,061—a 29.5% increase from current levels. However, this optimistic narrative is being challenged by significant selling activity from large holders, or 'whales'. Over the last three days, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have sold approximately 300,000 ETH, a volume exceeding $971 million at current prices. This distribution introduces a meaningful supply overhang and suggests skepticism among major investors about the rally's sustainability.
Despite the whale selling, on-chain metrics present a counterbalancing force. Ethereum's Liveliness metric, which tracks the movement of long-held coins, has declined sharply since late December 2025. This indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are choosing to hold their positions, reducing circulating supply and potentially stabilizing prices against short-term distribution pressure. Furthermore, sentiment analysis shows a recent clustering of green spots on the Spot Average Order Size chart, signaling increased buying participation from whale-sized investors during the price recovery, which may point to accumulation.
Technically, ETH is trading near $3,265 and must secure $3,287 as support to confirm the breakout strength. The immediate upside target is $3,447, with a more significant resistance zone between $3,300 and $3,450, which aligns with the 100-day moving average. A clean break above this area is needed to confirm a broader trend reversal. Conversely, if whale selling intensifies, ETH risks falling below $3,131, with a drop toward $3,000 or even $2,902 potentially invalidating the bullish breakout thesis.
