Bitcoin's (BTC) recent price surge to near $94,000 has stalled below the psychologically significant $100,000 level, with analysts pointing to a lack of sustained on-chain activity and dealer hedging as key restraining factors. Analyst Kamran Asghar warns that while macroeconomic factors like interest rates and regulations influence sentiment, lasting rallies require genuine on-chain demand—higher transaction volumes, active addresses, and network usage. Past rallies to $60,000 and $70,000 were fueled by such activity, whereas current muted engagement suggests investors are either taking profits or awaiting clearer signals.
Simultaneously, market observers like Crypto Rover describe Bitcoin as being "mechanically suppressed" by dealer hedging, a practice where dealers sell into rallies and buy dips to manage risk. This activity has effectively pinned BTC's price in a tight range between $90,000 and $95,000, with $100,000 acting as a major resistance wall. The market awaits potential volatility from a large batch of options expiring later in January, which could serve as a catalyst for a breakout.
Technically, chart analyst Ali Martinez notes that Bitcoin needs a daily close above $94,000 or below $88,000 to confirm a new trend direction. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading near $90,300. Analysts are also watching CME futures gaps, with one near $90,700 already filled and a lower gap around $88,000–$88,500 potentially acting as a magnet for price. Despite spot market demand driving the recent rebound, futures traders remain cautious, indicating a divergence in market participant positioning.
While some analysts see room for a short-term rally toward $97,000–$107,000, broader concerns persist that Bitcoin remains within a declining trend that began in September 2025, with predictions of a potential fall below $70,000 later in the cycle. The consensus is clear: for Bitcoin to sustainably breach $100,000, a decisive rebound in on-chain metrics is essential to complement any price momentum.
